100 hour MA and 38.2% puts a lid on the upside
The GBPUSD has moved higher today after the run to the week’s low yesterday stalled 8 pips short of its 100 day MA. The try lower in the Asian session today, did get below a swing area at 1.2910 -18 area (see green numbered circles in the chart below), but stalled at 1.2898 and well above the aforementioned 100 day MA at 1.28724.
The move to the upside, however, has found it’s match in the form of the falling 100 hour MA (blue line) and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 21 high. Both those levels come in at 1.2993 area. The high for the day reached 1.29874.
The price currently trades at 1.2970 after correcting to 1.29574. If the pair is to go higher, getting above the 1.2993 level the is needed.
PS Note the high from yesterday’s trading stalled at the 100 AND 200 hour MAs. That memory is sticking with traders today. So that has traders leaning (with stops above).
Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, what would tilt the intraday bias more to the downside?
The price action today saw the Asian session high near 1.2939 area. That level was tested in the London morning session before breaking higher (see red circle 3 in chart below). The subsequent low found early buyers against the level too (see red numbered circle 4 in the chart below) That level is now near the rising 100 bar MA and the 50% of the days trading range (at 1.29427). Ultimately, bulls/buyers would NOT want to see that area broken. Conversely, sellers from above WOULD want to see it broken. Key area.
Closer support clues would come in at the 38.2% of the day’s trading range at 1.29533. Stay above keeps the bullish run intact. Move below weakens the intraday technical picture a bit.
